The EUR/USD pair has seen an uptrend since the start of the week, bolstered by the weakening US dollar and anticipation of a potential Fed rate cut next year.
Possible technical scenarios:
According to the daily chart, it's evident that the EUR/USD price has yet to consolidate above 1.0958. An update of November highs and consolidation above the psychological level of 1.1000 could propel quotes toward the resistance at 1.1121. Alternatively, a decline towards the medium-term target of 1.0808 might occur.
Fundamental drivers of volatility:
This week brings crucial economic updates from the United States. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for December to be released on Wednesday at 3:00 p.m. (GMT) is expected to reach 103.8, surpassing the prior level of 102.0. Additionally, US GDP data for Q3 is slated for Thursday at 1:30 p.m. (GMT), with a growth forecast of 5.2%, affirming initial estimates.
Intraday technical picture:
Judging by the unfolding situation on the 4H chart of the EUR/USD pair, there is an emerging range between 1.0887 and 1.1008. The pair currently rests in the middle, poised to move towards either boundary.
The GBP/USD pair experienced a decline on Wednesday, driven by decreasing inflation figures, heightening expectations of a rate cut by the Bank of England in the upcoming year.
Possible technical scenarios:
Retreating from the resistance of the corridor between 1.2601 and 1.2785, the GBP/USD pair now hovers precariously close to support. There may be an upward reversal from 1.2601 or an attempt to break out this level and consolidate below it. In the latter case, the descent could extend toward 1.2410.
Fundamental drivers of volatility:
This week, significant macroeconomic data is anticipated from both the United States and the United Kingdom. The updated Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for December is set to be released on Wednesday at 3:00 p.m. (GMT), with analysts predicting an increase to 103.8 from the previous month's 102.0. Subsequently, on Thursday at 1:30 p.m. (GMT), the US GDP data for Q3 is expected, forecasting a growth of 5.2%, aligning with initial estimates.
On Friday at 7:00 a.m. (GMT), the UK Retail Sales Report for November is expected. Analysts anticipate the Core Retail Sales Index MoM to remain at 0.0%, an improvement from the previous month's -0.1%, while the year-over-year index figures are expected to decline to -1.8% from -2.7%. At the same time, the UK's Q3 GDP data will be published, projecting annual growth at 0.6% and a quarterly change at 0.0%, up from 0.2% in the previous period.
Intraday technical picture:
As we can see on the 4H chart of the GBP/USD pair, a series of successively lower highs set the stage for potential downward movement. The extent of the price decline hinges on the ability of the support at 1.2601 to hold.
The AUD/USD pair continues to steadily strengthen, supported by the weakening of the American currency.
Possible technical scenarios:
During the previous week, AUD/USD found support at 0.6541 marked with dotted lines. The price currently has little room to maneuver toward the resistance of the range between 0.6669 and 0.6798. A breakout and consolidation above 0.6798 could propel the pair to the next growth target at the 0.6869 resistance.
Fundamental drivers of volatility:
In the recent minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the bank considered the possibility of hiking interest rates in December. Ultimately, the decision was made to await additional data before contemplating any shifts in monetary policy.
As per the latest market projections, there is only a 5% likelihood that the RBA will raise rates at its upcoming February meeting. Aside from that, two anticipated rate cuts of a quarter percentage point are expected by the end of the following year.
At the moment, the pair's dynamics are predominantly influenced by the US dollar, which may be sensitive to upcoming macroeconomic statistics this week. The Conference Board Updated Consumer Confidence Index for December is scheduled for release on Wednesday at 3:00 p.m. (GMT), while third-quarter US GDP data is anticipated on Thursday at 1:30 p.m. (GMT), with forecasted growth at 5.2%, aligning with initial estimates.
Intraday technical picture:
The 4H chart of AUD/USD lacks additional data to provide a clearer directional view for the pair. There exists room for movement towards the resistance at 0.6798, and if this level triggers a reversal, a decline to the support at 0.6669 is possible.
181
