The upcoming trading week is shaping up to be one of the most volatile this month. Markets are bracing for a massive lineup of interest rate decisions from major global central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, the ECB, the Bank of Canada, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and the Bank of Japan. Adding to the tension are upcoming GDP releases from the US and Germany, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge (Core PCE), and the UK Autumn Budget Statement.
The week kicked off with positive signals from Europe’s economic powerhouse, as German business sentiment indicators beat analyst forecasts.
Germany
9:00 a.m. GMT: German IFO Business Expectations (October) (Released). Actual figure: 91.6 | Forecast: 90.0 | Previous figure: 90.4
9:00 a.m. GMT: German IFO Business Climate Index (October) (Released). Actual figure: 90.2 | Forecast: 90.0 | Previous figure: 89.9
Day two will shift the market's focus to US leading employment and consumer activity indicators, alongside rhetoric from the European regulator.
United States
12:15 p.m. GMT: ADP Weekly Employment Change. Previous figure: 18.50K
2:00 p.m. GMT: CB Consumer Confidence (October). Forecast: 80.5 | Previous figure: 81.9
2:00 p.m. GMT: New Home Sales (Sep). Forecast: 649K | Previous figure: 684K
Eurozone
5:00 p.m. GMT 🔥 : Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde
The defining day of the week: three central banks will announce their monetary policy decisions, creating a high risk of sharp moves across all major currency pairs.
New Zealand
1:00 a.m. GMT 🔥 : RBNZ Interest Rate Decision. Forecast: 3.00% | Previous figure: 2.75%
United Kingdom
12:30 p.m. GMT 🔥 : UK Autumn Budget Statement
Canada
1:45 p.m. GMT 🔥 : Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision. Forecast: 2.50% | Previous figure: 2.25%
United States
2:30 p.m. GMT: EIA Crude Oil Inventories. Forecast: -0.300M | Previous figure: -3.060M
6:00 p.m. GMT 🔥 : Fed Interest Rate Decision. Forecast: 4.00% | Previous figure: 4.00%
Thursday keeps the momentum going with a cluster of heavy-hitting US macroeconomic statistics landing alongside the ECB's rate verdict.
United States
12:30 p.m. GMT 🔥 : Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE) Price Index (MoM) (September). Forecast: 0.3% | Previous figure: 0.2%
12:30 p.m. GMT 🔥 : GDP (QoQ) (Q3). Forecast: 3.2% | Previous figure: 2.2%
12:30 p.m. GMT: Initial Jobless Claims. Forecast: 198K | Previous figure: 194K
Eurozone
1:15 p.m. GMT 🔥 : ECB Interest Rate Decision (October). Forecast: 2.65% | Previous figure: 2.65%
The week wraps up with the Bank of Japan's rate decision and the preliminary Q3 German GDP release.
Japan
3:00 a.m. GMT 🔥 : Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision. Forecast: 1.25% | Previous figure: 1.25%
Germany
9:00 a.m. GMT: German GDP (QoQ) (Q3). Forecast: 0.1% | Previous figure: 0.3%
Interest Rate Parade (Wednesday – Friday): Rate decisions from the Fed, ECB, and BoJ will set the global direction for the USD, EUR, and JPY for weeks to come. While the Fed and ECB are widely expected to hold rates steady – at 4.00% and 2.65%, respectively –, markets expect 25 bps rate hikes from New Zealand and Canada. Keep a close eye not just on the rate numbers, but on the accompanying policy statements as well.
US GDP & PCE Data Cluster (Thursday): Expected US GDP growth of 3.2%, paired with a pickup in the Core PCE index to 0.3%, could deliver a strong fundamental boost to the US dollar, solidifying expectations that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer.
UK Budget (Wednesday): The Treasury's Autumn Budget Statement is the primary volatility catalyst for the British pound (GBP/USD), with markets gauging the strictness of fiscal discipline.
Top Tip for the Week: Wednesday and Thursday will bring a massive wave of news releases. Trading directly through rate announcements is just like a gamble. Manage your risks, stick to money management, and enter trades only after the initial impulse clears and a well-defined structure emerges on the chart!
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