Following last week's interest rate marathon, the market is now entering a phase of digesting the aftermath. The upcoming five-day session will be packed with critical data reflecting the health of major global economies. The spotlight will be on Tuesday's Eurozone and US Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) releases, Thursday's Core PCE inflation markers, and a series of speeches from ECB and Federal Reserve officials that will set the tone for major currency pairs into late June.
Eurozone
12:30 p.m.: Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde.
2:10 p.m.: Speech by ECB Executive Board Member Philip Lane.
Eurozone
8:00 a.m.: June PMI Data Block:
Services PMI (Forecast: 48.6; Previous figure: 47.7)
Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: 51.6; Previous figure: 51.6)
S&P Global Composite PMI (Forecast: 48.5)
United States
1:45 p.m.: June PMI Data Block:
Services PMI (Forecast: 51.0; Previous figure: 50.7)
Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: 54.6; Previous figure: 55.1)
S&P Global Composite PMI (Forecast: 51.5)
United States
2:00 p.m.: May New Home Sales (Forecast: 637K; Previous figure: 622K)
2:30 p.m.: EIA Crude Oil Inventories Report (Previous figure: -8.263M)
United States
12:30 p.m.: Macroeconomic Data Block:
May Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (Year-over-Year) (Forecast: 3.3%)
May Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (Month-over-Month) (Forecast: 0.3%; Previous figure: 0.2%)
Q1 GDP (Final Estimate) (QoQ) (Forecast: 1.6%; Previous figure: 1.6%)
Initial Jobless Claims (Forecast: 226K; Previous figure: 226K)
Japan
11:30 p.m.: June Tokyo Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Year-over-Year) (Forecast: 1.6%; Previous figure: 1.3%)
United States
2:30 p.m.: Speech by FOMC Member John Williams.
3:30 p.m.: Speech by FOMC Member Neel Kashkari.
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This week, charts will be overwhelmed with constant commentary from Fed and ECB officials. Keep in mind that 90% of what you read on analytical Telegram channels and news feeds is pure market noise. In most instances, major players and algorithms have already priced in all potential scenarios and central bank decisions. Do not try to interpret the sentiments of the speakers. Focus on clean charts and strong daily levels because that is where large limit orders leave real, unforgeable footprints that no news flow can hide.
The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index is Jerome Powell’s preferred gauge of inflation. It is the primary metric the Fed uses to map out its interest rate path. Thursday is shaping up to be the most volatile and dangerous session of the week for all US Dollar pairs and Gold ($XAU/USD$). Any deviation from the 3.3% forecast will trigger aggressive stop-hunting in both directions. If you are an intraday trader, flatten your short-term positions before the 12:30 p.m. release or move your SLs to breakeven. Risk management is what keeps your account balance safe when the market behaves irrationally.
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