The global financial system has encountered a historical precedent. For the first time since the end of World War II, the volume of the United States' national debt has officially exceeded the size of the national economy (GDP). This psychological and economic barrier marks the beginning of a new era of the "mounting debt challenge," about which the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) warns in its latest reports.
A situation where a state's obligations become larger than everything that state produces in a year is not unique in world history; however, for the world's largest economy, this creates unprecedented risks. According to OECD data, the current dynamics are driven by the need to service previously accumulated borrowings amidst a changed macroeconomic reality. While during World War II a sharp spike in debt was justified by extraordinary defense spending and had a clear completion horizon, the current growth is structural in nature. Experts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) point out that the situation is complicated by external factors, including new waves of energy shocks that slow global growth and heighten uncertainty.
The debt exceeding the 100% of GDP mark causes serious concern among international regulators. The OECD highlights several critical points:
Sovereign Risks:
The mounting volume of borrowings limits the US government's ability to respond to new crises.
Corporate Sector:
The high level of national debt inevitably affects the cost of borrowing for private companies, creating additional pressure on business.
Inflationary Pressure:
The need to service a massive debt may force monetary authorities to hold high rates longer, which is already reflected in global markets, including energy prices.
In reports for March–May 2026, international financial organizations emphasize that the world has entered a phase of high volatility. Against the backdrop of the American national debt breaking negative records, other regions are also experiencing difficulties: the IMF records stagnation in Europe, caused by the instability of energy supplies and the need for strict budget austerity.
Under current conditions, the US administration finds itself in a "double pressure" situation: on one hand, it is necessary to support economic activity and investment, and on the other, to seek ways to stabilize the debt load to maintain global investors' trust in the dollar as the primary reserve currency. Meanwhile, trade policy is becoming increasingly rigid: the inclusion of the EU in the US trade policy observation list only highlights the tension in global economic ties during this challenging period.
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